According to Xeneta atmosphere freight press dismission in December 2022 , airline saw demand drop 2 % month - over - calendar month in November as cosmopolitan airfreight volumes dip for a 9th consecutive month . Freight forwarders are taking a ' time lag and see ' coming before making foresighted - term air payload capacity commitment .
In this month ’s air freight blog , we will focus on the correct tendency of air loading rates across the top two ball-shaped book corridor : East Asia to the US and East Asia to Europe , as the air cargo peak season is predict off .
East Asia to the US
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Air freight rate from East Asia to the US has been slue downwards for most of 2022 . In the week finish on December 11 , the spot aviation freight rate on this corridor was USD 5.68 per kg . The rates were down 46 % from their peak ( USD 10.52 per kg ) in the workweek ending on December 26 last year .
The falling breeze cargo pace are assign to the decline in aviation cargo requirement . US Census report that air cargo volume from East Asia to the US has been trending downward since Q2 this year , with volume in the first ten month down 9 % year - on - twelvemonth equate to the air cargo peak yr of 2021 .
The pass up mass on this corridor is mainly on exports from mainland China . Due to China ’s unrelenting Covid-19 lockdowns and US ’s high inflation charge per unit , the outward mainland China food market registered a double - digit intensity descent ( -12 % ) between January and October liken to last class . And the drop curtain seems to have gained momentum recently . In October this year , the air cargo volume was down 21 % compared to October 2021 .
Meanwhile , the rest of East Asia ( including Hong Kong , Taiwan , Japan , and South Korea ) to the US had a less pronounced aviation cargo volume fall than last twelvemonth ’s stage , begin from minus 4 % in Q2 and pass minus 8 % in October .
Put into a historic perspective , the situation air load rate from East Asia to the US in early December hit a two - year low . But remained 101 % above the same menses in 2019 .
On the one hand , the elevated air freight rate is make by the slow reopening of the East Asian market . This has make more affordable rider belly capacity to remain below pre - pandemic level . But , air loading requirement has been grow above 2019 levels . US Census reports that by the end of October , roll up zephyr volumes have increase 16 % compared to 2019 ( and +3 % in October only ) .
However , it is deserving noting that the residual of the East Asiatic grocery store bestow to most of this air consignment development , which is up a considerable 39 % from the pre - Covid stratum . outward mainland China only registered an accumulated volume growth of 6 % for the same period , as its volume growth has fallen since July .
East Asia to EuropeClick on image to enlarge
Spot air freight rate from East Asia to Europe stand at USD 5.76 per kilo in the calendar week ending on December 11 , a level last seen by the end of September 2021 . It wane only 31 % from its peak in the hebdomad ending on January 2 , 2022 , and it remain doubly compare to the 2019 price over the same week .
sink in on image to enlargeIn accordance with this , the spot air freight pace for the inbound US market place has been falling . It has been below or at a similar storey as the inward Europe pace since former July this twelvemonth , which normally is the other path around . In the first three fourth of this class , air cargo mass in East Asia to the European Union depict an heart - watering 26 % amass decline compared to last year and a 6 % fall from the pre - pandemic level ( source : Eurostat ) . It sink one - quarter ahead of the inward US market and in a more drastic style .
to boot , the indisposition in air loading pace decline on the inward Europe corridor compared to the inbound US can be attributed to the criticize - on impression of the Russia - Ukraine warfare , which straight off affects the EU much more than the US .
For case , increased operating costs due to the gag rule of Russian airspace and high vigour costs extenuate the effect of the spartan decline in air lading volume . At the subregional stage , there are scratchy air freight charge per unit declines between mainland China and the repose of East Asia line .
In former December , the average line freight rate from mainland China to Europe strike 31 % from its peak at the kickoff of the twelvemonth . However , the mediocre air freight rate fall for outbound " sleep of East Asia " was a more dim 21 % . The downslope in cargo loudness ( -28 % for mainland China vs. -21 % for the rest of East Asia ) and fewer effect from the closure of Russian airspace contribute to the more pronounced twilight in the tune loading rate for outbound mainland China .
author : Xeneta
